Well, Epic had to be hugely disappointed with the reception UT3's release got from the community. After the buildup that must have taken place within Epic itself, months spent imagining how awed and pleased people would be to play the game, it must have stung pretty bad to see the demo's impact. The screwy multi-staged release wasn't too smooth either, and the community was obviously not fully on board, no matter how much many of us liked the game.
There were very few things I didn't like about UT3, and the problems I had with the demo (like vehicle balance) turned out to be pretty map-specific issues. Still, Epic's draconian clamping down on their boards turned me off UT3 pretty hard, especially since I was hardly a harsh critic, yet somehow got banned. I'm certain I'm not alone in this. I would find it hard to pay for another Epic product, and Unreal is almost all I've played for the past 10 years.
So what can Epic do to bring back people who love the game, and yet were soured by the overall experience?
New maps might be nice, but casual browsing of the servers show that few host anything even vaguely custom (except FragBU).
Classic gametypes aren't the answer, either. Dom has been very well redone, and isn't exactly drawing in the online crowds. Assault is basically going to be a modified Warfare system, since they gave the tools to make a perfectly passable AS map, but nobody bothered to do it. So that leaves what, LMS? Mutant, perhaps?
So now we get to non-gameplay stuff. Extra characters and a new UI. While a new front end might bury the simply unbelievably bad UI of UT3, I can't see this bringing back the lost flock.
I have to agree that nothing short of a 2k4 experience will make the disaffected take a second look. It has to go to a whole other level of gameplay over UT3. Maybe a new gametype, a radically unique experience might do it, like Onslaught did for 2k4. Could they have gotten Conquest into some sort of working order? Whatever it is, it will have to be ambitious, since Warfare won't be casually topped.
And that's one other area that Epic can really make this expansion shine. Demonstrate how great Warfare can be. Give us huge levels suitable for 64-player fights, and complex and unique maps using the basically untapped potential of Kismet. Don't wait for the community to take the reins and hope they propel the game to success, lead by example.
I have high hopes for the expansion, but we'll have to see what form it takes before we can know what we might expect.