das_ben said:
The Euro has been constantly gaining importance during the last few years while the Dollar's weight stagnated. While it's unlikely that the dollar will crash any soon, these developments could mean that the dollar loses its domination of world trade.
Yeah, but no. It's taken the consolidation of Europes' powerhouses to gain a relatively minor advantage in currency just to give you a scope of the power the dollar holds. That, and it's the most recognizable currency in the global market. The Euro is a very recent addition, and it hasn't yet reached its' peak yet which is why it is still growing. Also, with the state of European politics the Euro is also very unreliable (we just haven't seen much fluctuation yet because any fluctuation is masked by the Euros' growth). It is easily affected by national relations and treaties, whereas the dollar is consolidated in one country. Also, as more countries pick up the Euro, the scope of national liability increases, and those countries can actually detract from the Euros' effectiveness (the aforementioned 'some countries benefitted from the Euro).
I'm used to having this argument all the time. For some reason every time Europe vs. US comes up people always bring up the Euro. Said people are either stupid or idiotically loyal. The dollar is a standard, and that's not going to change for quite some time.
Now, the
only argument that holds up against the power of the dollar, is that there will be an eventual end to dollar diplomacy, which was brought up before Congress in mid-Febuary. But one point addressed during the same session was that even though the dollar does not hold the weight in our market, it still holds a much higher demand than other currency, which alone empowers it past the Euro (for example the dollar crash of the 1970s). The end of this could either be catostrophic or negligable to the value of the dollar, but this still remains a highly debated topic among economists.
The dollar has been characterized by periods of slow loss followed by periods of huge gain. Right now, we are in a period of loss on the tail end of the 90's economic explosion. Who's to say there wont be another in 10-20 years?
So, there is your stupidly long Psychomorph-esque post. If you read it all, good for you. If you want to debate this further, please IM me on AIM about it so I don't derail the thread anymore than it already is.
--Harrm