Ireland votes NO to Lisbon treaty

[Snakeye]

I'm still a bit on a guessing part about the oil reserves and prices. As for now I suppose oil reserves should be sufficient for a few decades from now - so the whole fear to run out of oil, at least to the point it's promoted in the media as of now, seems a bit exaggerated. Let's just assume you're selling oil and think you get paid too little - or want to make more profit. Well, scientists already proclaim the oil reserves are limited and in addition we have a bright new panic topic called global warming so using less gas in "in" (note: I DO think global warming is a real problem, perhaps not to the extend it's portraied in the media - after all I've probably seen too much media induced doomsday scenarios - asteroid impacts anyone?).

Anyway, you realize selling more oil just doesn't seem like a good plan on it's own, since your costs do increase by pumping more and your source will deplete even earlier. The logical step is to greatly exaggerate the problem of oil shortage and have some guys at the stock exchange artificially raising the price - et voila, a nice increase in revenue paired with a automatic prolonging of your actual resources, since higher price will force people to use less. Also it allows you to make new resources available, which were not economic before the price raise. And the best part of it is, that you can always blame other for the increases. The stock exchange guys, the Chinese for needing more oil, the automotive industry for building such thirsty cars. If that's not a clear win I don't know what is. [Note that this is just a thought-experiment, I'm not saying it IS that way, more like it COULD be]

So will we run out of gas? Yeah, sometime we will. Will we be fucked then. Well, my guess is not, since by then I still assume we will have found a way to replace oil for most applications. Always remember that revolutions and global breakdown of society don't serve any good to whoever is in power - and that includes big companies. But making peolpe FEAR such things will happen serves everyone since they WILL be willing to pay more just to avoid their existence being shattered. Right now I suppose they only try to find the sweet spot for oil prices - the one where everyone moans but noone starts a mutiny.

 

[Hadmar]

I know what you are saying. The problem with oils is that if it gets significantly more expensive pretty much everything gets more expensive. Oil is needed to transport goods. If oil costs more transport costs more and so goods costs more. Not to mention the non-transport applications of it. It's really a question of how long it really takes until we run dry enough that the price gets to much and whether we find a solution for that problem in time. In time also means many years before the price of oil gets to high. The new solution needs to be implemented and spread through society and that's going to take time.

So yeah, again, who knows for sure? The thing that's making me uneasy is once again the laws and practices in the last years. Either they do it because they can or because they expect something.

 

[Rostam]

Dammit; I stop reading these forums for just a short time and all of the sudden we have a decent discussion.

 

[Snakeye]

A decent discussion? On Inf Off Topic? Please post a link to the thread!

On a on-topic sidenote: people seem dumber than I thought - I've heard somewhere they actually want OPEC to increase oil production to drop prices. Yeah, that will be a good long term sollution to oil shortage and price. Guess we should invent interplanetar space travel soon, so we can finally say: "Screw Earth, it's not like it's the only planet we got!".

 

[JaFO]

Perhaps we should do what Adams told us to : 'stop voting for lizards!'

I seriously doubt that a higher oil-price will force people to use less.
The transport-industry for example are perfectly willing to accept some kind of compensation for the increased cost.
ie : instead of using their brains to find a more effective/efficient way of transporting goods they've decided to not give a damn about their future.
The worst part is that the governments are likely to give in to such things as it 'helps' their economy. No one really gives a damn about the overall consequences of their actions as long as their own behinds are covered.

Consider the fact that in the seventies the government decided to ration all oil ...
That's something they now aren't considering thanks to the power of the industry and the 'me first'-stupidity.

 

[Carpetsmoker]

On a on-topic sidenote: people seem dumber than I thought - I've heard somewhere they actually want OPEC to increase oil production to drop prices.

Don't you think that if OPEC would have increased production long ago if they would be able?

 

[Snakeye]

Don't you think that if OPEC would have increased production long ago if they would be able?

Let me make a short logic check: OPEC increases production, they have more costs, they get less for the same ammount of oil - although more total since their oil volume increases, although that would reduce the time they still have oil available. Now if I were the OPEC I'd make some half-plausible explanations up - like, US invaded Iraq, which hampered the production there and even though we order S-Class Mercedes on monthly base and build ridiculously high buildings we don't really have the money to improve our oil pumps - because that's uhmm, expensive?

Now two things might happen:
-The oil consumers take the explanation as is and live with the high prices: clear win for OPEC.
-The oil consumer PAY for the improvement of oil pumping equipment: clear win for OPEC.

Then again you should never underestimate human greed - perhaps having more now IS actually more important than long term availability..

 

[zeep]

It's greed for money and power that got us into this mess, and so many more. Nothing good can come of this.

 

[Snakeye]

It's greed for money and power that got us into this mess, and so many more. Nothing good can come of this.

I personally don't think you can blame greed, you always have to blame humans - it seems that greed is part of the human nature and up to a certain extend it even makes sense from a survival point of view; the more you have the less likely you'll miss something important when you need it.

Also in my personal opinion I prefer those who act out of greed and admit it to those who think they'll help people by forcing their ideals upon others. It may be an overcited cliché, but I fear not those the most, who commit acts of evil out of evil reasons, but those who commit acts of evil because of good reasons - not that I have a particularly strong belief in evil and good anyway..

 

[zeep]

Sure thing greed is part of human nature, i'd never think otherwise.

Look at mankind at a glance, the past and the future. Don't look as yourself but as an alien visitor. You'd steer the hell away from this planet who's spiecies rages war with itself, destroys and exploits most natural resources, who's existence is based on obtaining currency and power more than on collective growth. Most of the inhabitants are lied to by media and government. There are enough religions to keep everybody busy and people are kept dumb and divided.

That's mankind and i don't expect any change in behaviour. Many people will die because they don't have enough to drink and eat. If there weren't any wars than that money could be used to help them. Yeah right.. That would mean stop the banks from beeing greedy for money/power, which means corporations would have to stop beeing greedy, which means mankind would have to stop beeing greedy.

Maybe you're right and greed in itself isn't necessarily bad, but man sure is giving it a bad name.

 

[Rostam]

Money doesn't buy you food and water. It's not like you put a few bucks in the ground and some water will come out. To understand the true purpose of money, you'll have to remember who invented it. The richest person ever alive on this earth decided that money would be a good way to keep his wealth. To keep his wealth... That's the purpose of money, to make sure those in power stay in power - regardless of productivity or whatever else.

Think of it this way: if every person in every western country would donate half his total money to a single poor country, it still wouldn't do dip****. Why? Because the moment the money hits that country, it will be worth nothing. And in western countries, the money that is left will simply double in its worth.

Money never solved any problems, money CAUSES problems. If we want to fight poverty, then that will be hard work and will require actual goods and knowledge. Of course, people are ready to donate some money to charity, just to feel good about themselves, but a rare few is ready to work to actually make a difference.

 

[zeep]

To fight poverty you need banks and corporations on your side who rather rage ongoing wars for profit. So yes, money causes problems, which is an understatement.

 

[Snakeye]

Are we talking about some special meaning of the word money I was not able to translate, or do you really mean money as means to represent "value"? If it's the latter I perosnally doubt you'll actually find out who invented it - since primitive forms of money have been around for a few thousand years - even printed money dates back to some Chinese emperor of pre 1000AD.

So money per se doesn't cause problems - it actually removes problems by enabling people to exchange goods without having to carry them around. What does cause problems, is the way money and currency are handled nowadays. Nations keep printing money so the actual value of the money units decreases constantly - inflation is what keeps the rich richer, since it creates the illusion for the masses, that their income increases although it practically doesn't.

And who actually does want to fight poverty? If people in poor countries actually had an acceptable standard of living who would come to the rich countries and do our dirty work? Yeah, government always whines about illegal immigrants and media make heart moving reports how those illegals are exploited - but bottom line is they do the dirty work we can't have done in their countries, so fighting poverty really is nothing anyone wants to do seriously. Also with poverty around even the lower masses in the rich countries can poitn to someone more miserable and even pretent to do something good by donating to some poor child in a poor country.

The western world is so eager about "winners" that it seems to forget that winning implies someone loses - and for one person to win billions you'll have a heap of people who have to lose.

 

[Carpetsmoker]

Money isn't a bad thing, it's in fact very practical, it's just what do (or do not) do with the money that may be bad (or good).

Humans have always traded, fossil records clearly show this, in the "early days" people traded goods for other goods, i.e. cows for bread, bread for fish, wood for metal, etc.
Do you feel like carrying around loads of cows, bread, fish, wood, and lots of other stuff for trading? Ever person would need a "money bin" like Scrooge McDuck ... It would be very impractical.

This is why we have money, it is much easier and much more practical.

 

[Rostam]

The only thing you need to fight anything is people. Not banks, not corporations, not politicians, none of those silly groups. What you need is people.

Unfortunately, and this is where the problem kicks is, people are on the side of banks and corporations. Slave labor didn't quite work out how the rich had hoped, and also the idea of 'giving the working class just enough so they can survive and breed' ended up in revolt. So nowadays, we just tell people what they want. It only took a few thousand years to figure out; but we're finally at that stage where we can control the masses with basic psychology. By manipulating their goals, what makes them happy, etc.

Of course, and here I totally agree with you; those banks and corporations are so powerful that any direct attempt to catch the attention of the people will fail. So success depends on how well we can manipulate banks and corporations.... Unlikely, unfortunately. However, the only bright side is that those banks and corporations are also run by normal people like you and I. That gives possibilities. Limited possibilities, but possibilities never the less.