So why didn't I win?

[5150]

5150 uses his superior speed to frag Nurkalion.
Nurkalion uses his superior aim to frag 5150.
Nurkalion gets fragged by 5150 because of his low health level.
Nurkalion uses his superior strength to frag 5150.
5150 kills Nurkalion with his Minigun before Nurkalion has a chance to do any damage with his Assault Rifle.
Nurkalion fries 5150 with a shock combo at mid-range as he tries to attack with the Shield Cannon.
Tie breaker: Nurkalion wins the match.

editazzi gets fragged by 5150 because of his low health level.
Bazzi uses his superior aim to frag 5150.
5150 frags Bazzi at close range in the dark tunnels of Curse 3.
Bazzi uses his superior strength to frag 5150.
5150 kills Bazzi with his Minigun before Bazzi has a chance to do any damage with his Assault Rifle.
Bazzi uses his superior speed to frag 5150.
Bazzi kills 5150 with his Minigun before 5150 has a chance to do any damage with his Assault Rifle.

 

[Lewis]

i think its about luck and probability too so if you've got just slightly higher stats, you're not really guaranteed to win

 

[Birelli]

There's actually not too much luck involved, when you really dissect what all those messages mean. There are a couple of factors that may not be apparent, but one thing I'll say is that if you have people with equal differences in exp and use the same map and strategy and weapons each time, the outcome will almost always be the same.

 

[DeadEyeNick]

The intial deciding factors for the match are always:
Max Health
Strength
Aim
Speed

So if your opponent stats happens to be just slightly better in all 4 stats, he already secure 4 frags. (hence the superior aim, strenght, speed, and frag because of low health msgs). The level of differences doesn't matter. I'm not sure if combat range have an impact though.

The secondary deciding factor will be the weapons, which are the more unpredictable ones because weapons can be countered, some weapons used in close range will get yourself killed(-1). So in maps like asb where it stresses rox and shock are the most effective, can be counter with the shocklance, yet a different close range combo can be used to counter shocklance as well. So reading your opponent past battlelog will aid you in predicting his/her combo. (Though I still don't understand some of the maps. )
Also there's the ddamage and improve aim status can help breaking those really close matches. Both status only works for different weapons and different playstyle. I'm not too sure about the amp, but imprAim + Widowmaker or shock lance at long range = lethal.
Lastly, it's the tiebreaker if apply. IIrc, tiebreaker is completely random, think i read it somewhere on this part of the forum.

 

[Birelli]

Combat style is definitely a factor, that's where you get those "fragged somebody or other at close range", or "used his mid-range weaopns" (less sure about that second one being because of tactics). I'm not sure about the specifics of it all, but tactics are definitely important (although I think less so than weapons by a bit)