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[lolitics] Final predictions

Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by TWD, Nov 5, 2012.

  1. TWD

    TWD Cute and Cuddly

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    Ok here's your chance to make final predictions for election day. You can predict whatever you want, but the real prize will be if you can correctly predict the electoral college vote. Hey predictions in before pools open tomorrow.

    I'm still wavering a bit. Hoping we get more polls from Colorado and Ohio. Right now I have Obama with an upper limit of 290. If Romney flips Colorado and Ohio, he wins 275 to 263. Have a hard time seeing Romney take Minnesota, Michigan, New Hampshire, or Pennsylvania, but I do think they are closer than polls show. Do not believe Obama stands a chance in any of Virginia, Florida.
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2012
  2. Jacks:Revenge

    Jacks:Revenge ╠╣E╚╚O

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    I'm just afraid that (because of hurricane Sandy and especially because of Florida) that we won't know who has won until at least Thursday.

    they're talking about having to count ballots by hand.
    oh god...
     
  3. Sjosz

    Sjosz (╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻

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    My prediction is that a lot of people will go out and vote if they haven't already submitted their votes via mail, and that there will be near equal outrage regardless of who wins. I also predict there will be lots of predictions.
     
  4. Al

    Al Reaper

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    I'm gonna go ahead and predict that Jos' prediction is correct.
     
  5. DeathBooger

    DeathBooger Malcolm's Sugar Daddy

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    I predict that it's stupid we still can't vote online in 2012. I also predict who ever loses will start lawsuits with the hurricane as an excuse.
     
  6. Zxanphorian

    Zxanphorian ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

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    I predict that the map looks the same as 2008, except that Romney will take Indiana, Florida, and North Carolina, and the partial vote in Nebraska. Obama 303 to Romney 235. Coincidentally this is the same map that RCP currently has.

    But if I were to pick the lower end, I would say that it would be the same as 2008, except that Romney will further take Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire, resulting in Obama 277 to Romney 261.

    Ideal Obama:
    [​IMG]

    Minimum Obama:
    [​IMG]

    Of course, Ohio could be the upset. But I don't see Romney advancing any further than that.
     

    Attached Files:

    Last edited: Nov 5, 2012
  7. N1ghtmare

    N1ghtmare Sweet Dreams

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    Do you really think that both state and federal governments can create an online voting system that will not be filled with security holes?

    Anyway,

    Obama gets all of the swing states except Florida and North Carolina.
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2012
  8. DeathBooger

    DeathBooger Malcolm's Sugar Daddy

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    No, but when has that ever stopped anyone?
     
  9. TWD

    TWD Cute and Cuddly

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    I think this is the scenario you have to worry about the most. If we assume the polling averages are close to correct, Romney's only chance is Ohio, and it looks like a dead heat. I actually think Ohio is more likely to go Romney than certainly New Hampshire, and possibly even Colorado. If this happens it could be a nightmare. The election would hinge on a single state with a highly controversial recount. Recounts in Ohio in the past have been pretty ridiculous with extra ballots appearing out of nowhere and everything.

    But I totally dispute Virginia. I'll be highly surprised if Obama wins it. Hence why I think Nate Silver's model is wrong, and 290 is actually Obama's upper limit. (Nate's model predicts 300 as the most likely scenario).
     
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  10. Luv_Studd

    Luv_Studd Member

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    where's that Mason-Dixon line again?

    [​IMG]

    nevermind
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2012
  11. Zxanphorian

    Zxanphorian ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

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    http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/oh-president-12
    http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-ohio-president-romney-vs-obama?gem
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html

    http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/va-president-12
    http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-virginia-president-romney-vs-obama?gem
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/va/virginia_romney_vs_obama-1774.html

    Really? These don't look like dead heats to me (except RCP's Virginia average).

    Also, check this out:
    http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/obama-job-approval-us

    Obama's Approval Rating is hovering around 50 in many of the polls, including Gallup and even the conservative-leaning Rasmussen at 52 and 51 respectively. Historically, approval ratings around 50 or so have been "safe" for reelection.

    Edit: But what interests me, is that these polls often do not contain Gary Johnson or the other third-party candidates. Johnson is the most visible and the best contender of the 3rd parties, and it has been said that he siphons off more Romney supporters than Obama supporters. So, we'll have to wait and see how Gary affects the outcome.
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2012
  12. TWD

    TWD Cute and Cuddly

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    Save your breath. No point in posting links. I'm not going to argue with you about it. I'm simply going to make the calls I feel confident in giving. Colorado and Ohio are the only ones I'm not sure about.
     
  13. DeathBooger

    DeathBooger Malcolm's Sugar Daddy

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    Zxanphorian types with his breath.





    Also, Ross Perot was the last time anyone knew who the 3rd party even was. That was only because he was a billionaire and could afford to make some noise. I don't even know who Gary Johnson is or that he was even running.
     
  14. TWD

    TWD Cute and Cuddly

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    Yup. As much as some have wanted 2012 to be the year of a third party candidate, it never materialized. Mostly because there is no viable candidate. I'm sure many are persuaded by Gary Johnson's positions, but he just doesn't have the chops to run a respectable campaign, let alone run the country. So he trudges onward completely perplexed as to why he can't pick up traction. He got into a few of the Republican debates, and all the Republicans thought he was crazy. I would have liked to have seen him in the debates between Obama and Romney so that the third party dreamers could see how far out of his league Gary really is.
     
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  15. Sir_Brizz

    Sir_Brizz Administrator Staff Member

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    I'm guessing Romney 275.
     
  16. ambershee

    ambershee Nimbusfish Rawks

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    I predict that no matter who wins, we all lose anyway.
     
  17. TWD

    TWD Cute and Cuddly

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    Yeah I'm going to stick with 275. I'm tempted to follow Call Rove's prediction at 285. He is no doubt going off the supposed internal Romney numbers, but I think those are a tad optimistic.
     
  18. cryptophreak

    cryptophreak unbalanced

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    November the fifth still has a few minutes left. I predict it will pass unmarked.

    [​IMG]
     
  19. DeathBooger

    DeathBooger Malcolm's Sugar Daddy

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    I didn't know about this 5 percent vote thing. I'm voting for Gary Johnson if it means more parties will be more relevant in the future. Apparently all the cool kids are doing it.
     
  20. Zxanphorian

    Zxanphorian ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

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    I'm voting Obama, but it dismays me to see people who say that their vote "doesn't count" and decide not to. If the cynics actually vote for a third party and not vote for apathy, this at least will let their voice be heard and not stay in silence. Staying silent is akin to voting for the status quo. "Speak now or forever hold your peace" indeed.

    On a related note, I wish that there was a "Present" option for voting, in stead of not pressing a button for any candidate in the category. That way, if you don't want to vote for any candidate, this is displayed publicly for the country to see. If congress can vote "present" why can't we?
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2012

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