BREXIT Thread

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dragonfliet

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Apr 24, 2006
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I have no doubt that they will vote to leave the UK as soon as Sturgeon can get together a referendum, but they will quickly learn they also have no place inside the EU without Britain. Either way they will end up in the same place.

The EU could have solved this by allowing Britain to have its own immigration policies and sovereignty. Britain already got tons of concessions just to join the EU because it is just as (if not actually much, much more) beneficial to the EU for Britain to be a member as not. I suspect the next thing we will see come from this is for France to start poking at the idea of Frexit. Merkel should be scared.

Your solution to Britain staying in the EU is to fundamentally scrap the EU. I mean, sure, they COULD have done that, but there is no chance in hell that they would have. And while it would certainly be bad for the EU if other large countries left, right now, this looks like a terrible idea. I mean, unless watching the value of your currency plummet (and then continue to fall) is something you want. Or if an immediate kickback from companies is something you want. Etc. It isn't like the UK is going to suddenly lose all of it's value (it's still a wealthy, powerful country), but it is certainly going to suffer for a while (You know, as has been predicted by economists and has proven to be true).

Likewise there is approximately a 1% chance that the UK is even going to be able to "control" it's immigration, unless they're excited about a second round of their value plummeting and more companies pulling out from the UK as much as possible. Because it is VERY important to them that they can still trade and travel freely, and this is a privilege that comes with the cost of letting other people trade and travel freely.

Brexit is 95% racist whackjobery and 5% naive understanding about how international commerce works. While ideas being terrible, and shown to be terrible doesn't necessarily stop others from following, I would honestly be surprised if any major countries tried to follow in the UKs wake.
 

Selerox

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If Brexit holds (and I suspect it will do), one way the blow to the UK could be softened is if some of the other Northern European countries do likewise and leave. Those countries by and large share the UK's free trade ideals and their hesitant approach to immigration. This might allow The UK and those other countries to effectively rebuild the the EEC trade block, which is something the UK had very little problem with.

As an example, in the event of a "North Sea Cascade" with the Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark (possibly even Finland) voting out, I could see a fairly rapid co-operation in terms of trade. Those countries and the UK have a large spread of common ground, and are all solid economies.

If that happens, then I can see the EU cracking down the middle in fairly epic fashion along north/south/east lines. That would possibly leave Germany in the situation of effectively bankrolling the EU alone as one of the only net contributors, which German voters aren't exactly overjoyed about already.

But that won't happen. Partly because the EU will do basically everything in it's power to make an example of the UK. Ironically, this will play directly into the hands of the Brexit lobby's accusations that the EU is about breaking national governments for its own self interest.
 

Sir_Brizz

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Your solution to Britain staying in the EU is to fundamentally scrap the EU. I mean, sure, they COULD have done that, but there is no chance in hell that they would have. And while it would certainly be bad for the EU if other large countries left, right now, this looks like a terrible idea. I mean, unless watching the value of your currency plummet (and then continue to fall) is something you want. Or if an immediate kickback from companies is something you want. Etc. It isn't like the UK is going to suddenly lose all of it's value (it's still a wealthy, powerful country), but it is certainly going to suffer for a while (You know, as has been predicted by economists and has proven to be true).
Not really. The EU is about free trade and travel is part of that but each member nation should still have sovereignty. The EU has been taking that away more and more. It's more a bureaucracy like the UN that, unlike the UN, requires every member to abide by its rules in order to stay on the boat. I think this slump with the UK economy is short term caused by bad planning and too much trust in polling data. Even Nate Silver, supposed god of statistics, was wrong on Brexit.

UK's currency and market are having issues because people bet on Remain winning and lost. I know a couple people that bet on Leave winning and they made a killing off of shorting the pound :p
Likewise there is approximately a 1% chance that the UK is even going to be able to "control" it's immigration, unless they're excited about a second round of their value plummeting and more companies pulling out from the UK as much as possible. Because it is VERY important to them that they can still trade and travel freely, and this is a privilege that comes with the cost of letting other people trade and travel freely.
I agree it's unlikely but it has a better chance there than the US :p Also, other Leavers would be able to make better deals with the UK as Selerox points out. Once the UK economy rebounds (which it will), other EU members might start wondering why they are shipping off so much money to foreign bureaucrats.
Brexit is 95% racist whackjobery and 5% naive understanding about how international commerce works. While ideas being terrible, and shown to be terrible doesn't necessarily stop others from following, I would honestly be surprised if any major countries tried to follow in the UKs wake.
I don't really agree that is necessarily fair. I definitely think that is how the US media is spinning it, though, and there definitely is a fair amount of racism and nationalism going on there.
 

dragonfliet

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Apr 24, 2006
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Not really. The EU is about free trade and travel is part of that but each member nation should still have sovereignty. The EU has been taking that away more and more. It's more a bureaucracy like the UN that, unlike the UN, requires every member to abide by its rules in order to stay on the boat. I think this slump with the UK economy is short term caused by bad planning and too much trust in polling data. Even Nate Silver, supposed god of statistics, was wrong on Brexit.
Free trade is a part, but not, by any means, the biggest part of the EU. The free travel section is in fact one of the biggest components of the deal and pretty central to it. The UK was able to not use the Euro, but NOT able to change the free travel portion. That's how big it is.

And while people have been talking about getting rid of the free travel, it's almost always been foolish bullshit, where people want to be able to have free travel, but also cut off immigrants. It's pretty silly xenophobic nonsense. And while Silver was wrong, he's been wrong on a LOT of things (Trump is another huge miss for 538). Statistics are great, but have significant weaknesses for things that haven't been studied and documented to death.

UK's currency and market are having issues because people bet on Remain winning and lost. I know a couple people that bet on Leave winning and they made a killing off of shorting the pound :p

You're conflating two completely different things. Some PEOPLE have made money shorting the pound. If more people had shorted the pound, the pound still would have plummetted. The economy still would have plummeted. Some people making money is in no way shape or form representative of the larger economic impacts. There have been SIGNIFICANT economic impacts, as predicted, and these will continue in the long term (as predicted). While I was slightly dismissive of Silver above, it was because the idea that a person can "predict" something like people's opinions on a historic thing (which Silver, and any statistician will always have difficulty with), while the economic impacts of uncertainty, of bargaining AGAINST a collective, etc. have been pretty rigorously studied.

I agree it's unlikely but it has a better chance there than the US :p Also, other Leavers would be able to make better deals with the UK as Selerox points out. Once the UK economy rebounds (which it will), other EU members might start wondering why they are shipping off so much money to foreign bureaucrats.
No, they are going to have LESS of an input than the US, because they are going to be at a significant disadvantage in negotiating power.

I also think that both you and Selerox are WILDLY underestimating the bargaining power of the EU. While the UK is a huge financial sector, and matters a lot, they don't matter nearly as much as the rest of the EU, and if there are rumbles of other countries pulling out, you would have to be an idiot to think that they would hardball the UK to scare those rumbles into quieting down. A really shit deal with the UK would have negative consequences for the EU in general, but WAY worse ones for the UK, and in the medium run (the next 5 years or so), taking a small hit while fucking over the UK would be a significantly better step for the EU in general, solidifying the pact. I think ideas of the EU just falling apart and some better arrangement happening are fantasies.

This, by the way, is how the US keeps getting relatively crap deals in trade negotiations despite being pretty much the most important country in the world. Because unilateral strength isn't as strong as nationalists think it is.

I don't really agree that is necessarily fair. I definitely think that is how the US media is spinning it, though, and there definitely is a fair amount of racism and nationalism going on there.

The US media is being pretty chill about it. Most coverage in the UK and France (the international news I can actually take in regularly) spins it that way. And while it isn't necessarily fair, it's mostly true. There is an essentially unanimous understanding that this will hurt the UK for a good period of time and fail to deliver on almost any of the promises. It's a fantasy for isolationists afraid of foreigners.
 
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Leo(T.C.K.)

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The free travel stuff is not necesarily part of EU but more part of the european trade. That's one thing they don't really want you to know so you stay in EU. You can have free travel even without EU..
 

dragonfliet

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Apr 24, 2006
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The free travel stuff is not necesarily part of EU but more part of the european trade. That's one thing they don't really want you to know so you stay in EU. You can have free travel even without EU..
The free travel is pretty much necessary for the EU. You'll also notice that a country like Norway, which ISN'T part of the EU, has free travel as a condition of its trade agreements (and also pays a fee to the EU). And yes, you can have EU benefits without being in the EU. Again, Norway has pretty much all of the benefits of the EU, and they aren't in the EU. I mean, they also pay a fee and receive no subsidies. And they can't vote. And they're bound to EU regulations. So yeah, you CAN avoid being in the EU, but you still have to essentially be in the EU.

All of this goes to say: the UK is 100% fucked. They have damaged their economy a LOT, and they aren't going to get the things that they think they are getting (That money that was going to the EU? Isn't going to NHS. And will probably still go to the EU in a different format. Free travel is going to continue to happen and the UK won't be able to "stop the foreigners," etc., etc.).

Oh, trust me, I'm not underestimating for a second just how fucked the UK is. Not entirely sure where you got that idea.
My mistake. I took your idea of other nations leaving making it easier for the UK a little differently than you apparently meant it.