Poor Northern Alliance

[RogueLeader]

Something I just posted on Indymedia:

They must have no idea what will soon happen to them.

Amongst the euphoric joy they and we have had in the so called "loss" of the Taliban, which is "fleeing" to the South, all sense of perspective seems to have been lost. The media, which is eager to show support for the "War on Terror", is hastily declaring this a victory. In fact, nothing could be more wrong.

Anyone who has read Mao's On Guerilla Warfare should be feeling pity for the Northern Alliance as it falls into a trap. The flight of the Taliban soldiers is better described as a strategic retreat. The U.S. bombing as successful in something other than killing civilians; it also forced an end to the obsolete trench warfare being waged between the Taliban and the Northern Alliance. In that situation, the Taliban has fallen back on guerrilla warfare.

Although the media is quick to demonize the Taliban (and they are not entirely incorrect to do so, as they are authoritarian), the American people are given the impression that the Taliban is the evil occupying force, and the Northern Alliance is the liberator. In reality, many Afghans would rather support the Taliban they hate than the Northern Alliance. Ethnic loyalty runs high in that region of the world, and the Pashtuns would rather see the Pashtu led Taliban in power than the Northern Alliance. Many, who have expressed dislike of the Taliban, would join them if the Northern Alliance attacked.

By withdrawing, the Taliban is leaving its own ethnicity unprotected. This tactic has been used by the American government, which has exploited fear of terrorism to enact unconstitutional authoritarian laws. By giving the people a sense of urgency, the Taliban can drum up support for their cause.

The Northern Alliance will be forced to move further southward. Not having the numbers to sufficiently occupy the land under their control, the Northern Alliance will be drawn thin. This will make it very easy for the Taliban, using guerrilla tactics, to fight them. The further south the Alliance moves, the longer their supply lines become and the shorter the Taliban's becomes. Not only will the Northern Alliance increasingly see its army becoming weakened by attacks, but it will be harder to replace what is lost.

The Northern Alliance is in grave danger; the "War on Terror" may soon be an absolute failure, and all that will be attained is greater death and destruction.

Edit: God how I love to break the joy with my horrifying analysis of reality, inevitably resulting in gloom and doom.

[Catalyst]

Time to move to Phase 2: Kill Everyone That Hates the U.S.

[RogueLeader]

I thought that was Phase 1?

[Catalyst]

No, Phase 1 was "Kill Some of the People that Hate the U.S. With Other People That Will Eventually Hate the U.S."

[The_Fur]

Vietnam anyone?

Euronews reported on this as well, the territorry the Taliban is retreating into is pashtun territory which serves as a refuge to the taliban. Also taliban officials reportedly stated they were not running, they were regrouping and would rely on guerilla warfare to continue the war.

the rules of Guerilla warfare:
1) When the enemy advances we retreat
2) When the enemy halts, we harass
3) When the enemy seeks to avoid battle we attack
4) When the enemy retreats we persue


at the moment we are at step 1


edit BTW this reminds me of Korea and WW2, in both wars one side retreated into it's supply lines (ww2, the russians korea the north koreans) and then completely crushed their oponents.
The taliban does the same, they are retreating into territory where they have widespread support and can at least count on the population for support (in the form of supplies and intel).

[phatcat]

bahh... RL the gloom monger

I will not praticipate in the crappy attempt to get me down

[The_Fur]

RL, don't