US defaults next week what does everyone think?

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kiff

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Yeah, **** those dirty federal worker scumbags! It's not like those sub-humans have families, mortgages, car notes, health problems, etc... like the rest of us hard working true Americans!
cool story bro! :clap:

Are you sure that's a good idea?
cool graph there bro!

wapoobamabudget1.jpg


obama-deficit4.jpg
 

MÆST

Active Member
Jan 28, 2001
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One thing I disagree on w/ MÆST is that I don't think it'll be a good thing to get downgraded. That could screw up new loans and really put a damper on our fragile housing market.

I meant good as in chemotherapy good. I still think housing has a bit lower to go and higher interest rates will encourage savings which funds investments which is what is needed, not spending. I certainly don't mean to imply that a downgrade will be painless, just that it would accurate reflect financial realities. That is if the ratings agencies have learned their lessons from incorrectly rating many housing instruments as AAA.
 

MÆST

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Are you sure that's a good idea?

Bush-v-Obama.gif

I'm not sure what you are getting at. Every knows Bush was a horrible president. Both Reid and Obama were rightly against raising the debt limit in 2006 under Bush. But now that Obama is president it is OK to raise the debt limit more than it was raised in 2006? That's hypocrisy.

If your point is only to call out the hypocrisy of those Republicans who supported the spending increases and debt limit increases under Bush but not under Obama that's fair game. (Feel free to name names, I'd like to know.) But these GOP hypocrites are not the "Tea Party freshmen" that are dominating the news cycle as what Reid calls "extremists" and Pelosi calls "dictators."
 

kiff

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I meant good as in chemotherapy good. I still think housing has a bit lower to go and higher interest rates will encourage savings which funds investments which is what is needed, not spending. I certainly don't mean to imply that a downgrade will be painless, just that it would accurate reflect financial realities. That is if the ratings agencies have learned their lessons from incorrectly rating many housing instruments as AAA.
true. if they cant make any real cuts, it would be better to take the downgrade sooner than later... since we'd be in much deeper debt. but you already know this

But these GOP hypocrites are not the "Tea Party freshmen" that are dominating the news cycle as what Reid calls "extremists" and Pelosi calls "dicatators."
hey, I have an idea. Let's just pass Ryan's plan so we can find out what's in it :lol:
 
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Zxanphorian

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Cool graphs there bro as well!

My problem with these graphs (mainly the top one): they compare actual measurements with various projected estimates. When were the estimates initialized? Who constituted the CBO at the time of initialization? What and when were the CBO estimates initialized at a related point for the actual measured portion of the graph, to see if there were any biases in the estimates? How do existing programs not related to any new policies take into account for the changes of the graph?
 
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MÆST

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Cool graphs there bro as well!

My problem with these graphs: they compare actual measurements with various projected estimates. When were the estimates initialized? Who constituted the CBO at the time of initialization? What and when were the CBO estimates initialized at a related point for the actual measured portion of the graph, to see if there were any biases in the estimates? How do existing programs not related to any new policies take into account for the changes of the graph?


All the baseline budgeting "cuts" you hear about in these debt limit bills are cuts to the projected spending. (Or in some cases, cuts to imaginary future wars.) If you don't trust the CBO projections, then you have to that non of the plans that are seriously on the table are anything but spending increases. And typically that's not a good way to deal with a debt problem.
 

Lizard Of Oz

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I'm not sure what you are getting at. Every knows Bush was a horrible president. Both Reid and Obama were rightly against raising the debt limit in 2006 under Bush. But now that Obama is president it is OK to raise the debt limit more than it was raised in 2006? That's hypocrisy.

If your point is only to call out the hypocrisy of those Republicans who supported the spending increases and debt limit increases under Bush but not under Obama that's fair game. (Feel free to name names, I'd like to know.) But these GOP hypocrites are not the "Tea Party freshmen" that are dominating the news cycle as what Reid calls "extremists" and Pelosi calls "dictators."

You should read the post I quoted. Kiff suggested that we'd be in better financial shape under Bush. I was simply showing him that he was wrong... way wrong. :D

As for Obama voting against the 06 debt ceiling increase. Obama was making a political statement. He knew the bill would pass regardless of his vote.
 

dragonfliet

I write stuffs
Apr 24, 2006
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hey you're preaching to the choir now.

no one ever brings up the defense budget... which is fucking absurd.

Maybe you should read a little better before voting for the crazy. Unconstitutional things such as education and commerce and energy departments? Riiiiiight.
 

MÆST

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You should read the post I quoted. Kiff suggested that we'd be in better financial shape under Bush. I was simply showing him that he was wrong... way wrong. :D

As for Obama voting against the 06 debt ceiling increase. Obama was making a political statement. He knew the bill would pass regardless of his vote.

He said "We should go back to Bush spending levels". Sounds to me like he's talking about spending levels when Bush was president. I think you are reading in to it to much if you interpret that as a desire to go back to Bush's philosophy of government.

The relevant graph would just have inflation adjusted spending.

mandatory-discretionary-spending-600.jpg
 

Benfica

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Feb 6, 2006
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This will be solved at the 11th hour again, but you will pull it through. Have faith, damn it! :)
 

MÆST

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This will be solved at the 11th hour again, but you will pull it through. Have faith, damn it! :)

While I'm confident a debt limit increase will be passed, what, exactly, will be solved? Political problems rarely reflect real world problems and even rarer do political solutions solve them.
 

MÆST

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House passes another bill, ball in Senate's court.

To hammer in the point that our credit rating is not directly related to whether a debt limit increase is passed.

Neither of the debt ceiling bills before Congress would meaningfully alter the country's debt trajectory and thus won't bolster the United States' chance of preserving its AAA rating, a key rating agency said Friday.

"Reductions of the magnitude now being proposed, if adopted, would likely lead Moody's to adopt a negative outlook on the AAA rating," Moody's Investors Service said.

Real (not baseline) spending cuts are needed to preserve our AAA rating.
 
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kiff

That guy from Texas. Give me some Cash
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Neither of the debt ceiling bills before Congress would meaningfully alter the country's debt trajectory and thus won't bolster the United States' chance of preserving its AAA rating, a key rating agency said Friday.

"Reductions of the magnitude now being proposed, if adopted, would likely lead Moody's to adopt a negative outlook on the AAA rating," Moody's Investors Service said.
Real (not baseline) spending cuts are needed to preserve our AAA rating.
man, those places must be run by a bunch of tea party whackos!
 

TWD

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We're more or less in agreement on the other things, but I wanted to clarify my position. I don't think there is a place where everyone but the teaparty is happy, but on this issue, I feel like there is a pretty clear divide of where the tea party will not compromise and where the dems won't compromise, and I don't think that this is something that can be worked past. If you exclude the tea party from the equation, however, I think that there is a middle ground that would leave both the majority of dems and reps unhappy, but willing to vote for it. Boehner, however, is not willing to consider that as an option (though I think that he is in that middle section that would come to a decent compromise).

You're right, however, that the bill being republican is essentially enough to get democrats against it. More fun political posturing BS.

Isn't this kind of the Harry Reid bill though?

Looking at the numbers from this latest vote if the Republicans lose the tea party they'd have to pick up 1-2 dozen votes from Democrats.
 
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