Facebook IPO

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Jacks:Revenge

Jacks:Revenge

╠╣E╚╚O
Jun 18, 2006
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somewhere; sometime?
anyone else cashing in?

[m]shttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDfqI5A-xXo[/m]

I guess I should add, it opened at $38 per share and is currently hovering around 34 bucks.
 
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Selerox

Selerox

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Fuck Facebook

StalwartUK said:
Personally I think they are overvalued.
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Facebook is not for a second worth $100B.

The same way MySpace wasn't, the same way Bebo wasn't. It's a transient medium which will never, ever keep that value. All it takes is a site to come along that does the same thing (with better privacy?) that the hipsters jump over to, and Facebook shareholders suddenly have shares that aren't worth a drachma.
 
DarkED

DarkED

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Selerox said:
Facebook is not for a second worth $100B.

The same way MySpace wasn't, the same way Bebo wasn't. It's a transient medium which will never, ever keep that value. All it takes is a site to come along that does the same thing (with better privacy?) that the hipsters jump over to, and Facebook shareholders suddenly have shares that aren't worth a drachma.
Click to expand...

I dunno... Facebook stats say it has 800 million active users. That's a lot of hipsters to peel away (myself included.) Hell, that is over 10% of the Earth's population. It probably has even more users if you count 'inactive' accounts, but I don't know their criteria for considering an account 'active' so I can only speculate.

Myspace didn't exactly 'die off' either. It may be second best, but being second best to Facebook still makes you pretty damn good, and the company is still worth hundreds of millions from advertising revenue. I think most people left MySpace because it had become a cesspool of stupidity and a haven for spammers by the time Facebook was mature. That's why me and most of my friends left at least.
 
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Selerox

Selerox

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You won't make $100B off of that site.

DarkED said:
Myspace didn't exactly 'die off' either. It may be second best, but being second best to Facebook still makes you pretty damn good, and the company is still worth hundreds of millions from advertising revenue. I think most people left MySpace because it had become a cesspool of stupidity and a haven for spammers by the time Facebook was mature. That's why me and most of my friends left at least.
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I know MySpace is still around, but is it worth even close to the original price that was paid for it? Not remotely.

It's not whether Facebook can survive, it will. It's whether Facebook can make people the money they think it can. Which it can't.
 
DarkED

DarkED

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Selerox said:
I know MySpace is still around, but is it worth even close to the original price that was paid for it? Not remotely.

It's not whether Facebook can survive, it will. It's whether Facebook can make people the money they think it can. Which it can't.
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We'll see, that's for sure. I personally don't think it's worth the buy-in price. Still... I have considered buying 100 shares and sitting on them for a year just to see where it goes. If I could double or triple my investment I might buy more shares, but who is to say I'll even need the money in a year? ;)
 
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D

DeathBooger

Malcolm's Sugar Daddy
Sep 16, 2004
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We've hit a new low if people are becoming billionaires over people's random stupid thoughts.
 
Sir_Brizz

Sir_Brizz

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The stock is WAY overvalued, even right now (which is down). Right now Facebook is down at $32 which is $6 less than opening bid. Can you comprehend the amount of value that is represented in that $6? Literally billions.

I personally think this thing is going to crash and burn until it is in single digit territory. You can't compare this to Google as Facebook has no vertical mobility. They think they can make tons of money through advertising, but reality will hold that they can't. Over half of their traffic comes from their mobile apps and ads in the mobile apps are just going to piss people off. Additionally, targeted advertising for cars when you've been commenting on someone's post about cars is useless. Talking about cars with someone isn't a trend, searching on Google for cars IS a trend.

At the end of the day, Facebook has tons of information that could be useful for something but it currently is not useful for anything.
 
Jacks:Revenge

Jacks:Revenge

╠╣E╚╚O
Jun 18, 2006
10,065
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somewhere; sometime?
Sir_Brizz said:
They think they can make tons of money through advertising, but reality will hold that they can't.
Click to expand...
but is it really that clear cut?

take Google, since I mentioned it earlier.
Google had to made make educated guesses as to what advertisements may appeal to what people based purely on what they searched for; which may or may not have anything to do with that persons interests. and they still make loads of money from advertisements.

Facebook doesn't really have to guess.
it's whole model is basically a gigantic database on exactly what people want to follow and what they feel about very particular things. that's an advertiser's wet dream, and it's only part of the way Facebook makes money.
 
Manticore

Manticore

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Sir_Brizz said:
The stock is WAY overvalued, even right now (which is down). Right now Facebook is down at $32 which is $6 less than opening bid. Can you comprehend the amount of value that is represented in that $6? Literally billions.
Click to expand...
Yep; these shares did not open well on their first day of trading. I wouldn't buy them anyway..........

....... and Bono is a douchebag.
 
Sir_Brizz

Sir_Brizz

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Jacks:SmirkingRevenge said:
but is it really that clear cut?

take Google, since I mentioned it earlier.
Google had to made make educated guesses as to what advertisements may appeal to what people based purely on what they searched for; which may or may not have anything to do with that persons interests. and they still make loads of money from advertisements.

Facebook doesn't really have to guess.
it's whole model is basically a gigantic database on exactly what people want to follow and what they feel about very particular things. that's an advertiser's wet dream, and it's only part of the way Facebook makes money.
Click to expand...
I think you really have it backwards.

On Google, you're looking for something. You are actively trying to find something. Searching for 'Chevrolet' on Google has a semantic meaning, you are pursuing information on or about 'Chevrolet' which may include buying a car from them or finding information directly from the Chevrolet site.

On Facebook, they think that interest in cars translates to a semantic meaning. Frankly, it doesn't. Just because I talk about something to do with cars with people I know on Facebook and mentioned Chevrolet several times doesn't actually mean anything. If I see an ad about Chevrolet on my Facebook page, I would probably either be annoyed or, at most, apathetic about it.

There is a reason GM is re-evaluating their advertising on Facebook but not on Google. Facebook doesn't have the kind of engagement necessary for "unrelated product sales". People don't go to Facebook in search of something, they go there to see what city their friend is pooping in today or what their cousin's cat ate for breakfast. It's next to impossible (for Facebook, anyway) to translate this activity into an engagement that leads to money. Corporate pages that can be had for free have a much higher likelihood of causing that kind of engagement (which is something the GM representative reinforced, as well).

Facebook is now down $7 as of closing today. Investors obviously aren't seeing the massive value that Facebook executives saw in the company.
 
Manticore

Manticore

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Jacks:SmirkingRevenge said:
a filthy rich douchebag ;)
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Yes; he's very unlucky. ;)

Sir_Brizz said:
Facebook is now down $7 as of closing today. Investors obviously aren't seeing the massive value that Facebook executives saw in the company.
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Particularly in this economic climate volatile shares such as entertainment, aviation and IT are high risk investments. Obviously people are becoming aware of this. Better off putting the money into Walmart shares or some-such......
 
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Jacks:Revenge

Jacks:Revenge

╠╣E╚╚O
Jun 18, 2006
10,065
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somewhere; sometime?
Sir_Brizz said:
Facebook is now down $7 as of closing today. Investors obviously aren't seeing the massive value that Facebook executives saw in the company.
Click to expand...

ok well I'm not going to disagree with anything you said, because it's not a topic that I know alot about to begin with. I was more or less asking you - based on my limited interpretation of the business model - why you thought Facebook would be any better or worse (for advertisers) than Google.

and you've summed it up nicely.
personally I thought that 100 Billion was WAY overblown, even if my interpretation was more accurate.
 
TWD

TWD

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I can't share opinions on whether I think something is a buy or a sell or whatever. I would only advise that you not let the allure of money trick you into making a hasty decision. I'm primarily a chart person so I usually wait until there's enough of a chart for me to understand how the security behaves. I wait until everyone stops talking about it. Buying the stock that's the talk of the day is a sure fire way to lose money.

You also can't just say "it's not worth 100 billion". What are you basing that off of? Right now the stock is trading at around 70 times earnings per share. That sounds high, but you also have to remember that their growth estimates are at 35%. That gives you a price earnings growth ratio of around 2 which is reasonable for a stock with this much attention. A good argument for "it's not worth that much" would be something along the lines of "they aren't going to generate revenue of $0.13 per share" or "they aren't going to grow 35% over the next few years.
 
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