My point is that you can't bet for who will win (not before knowing the participants anyway), because it isn't decided by all those factors you listed (which happen), but ultimately on merit of the music or the performance. This year a modern dance pop song succeeded, as did 2010. People listen to modern dance tracks on the radio, so it's hardly a surprise. 2007, 2008, 2009 and last year (two more, two less) classic Eurovision pop ballads won. These may not have excited your ears, or mine, but you can't deny all of them had excellent production values. And they came from countries as diverse as Serbia, Russia, Norway, Germany, Azerbaijan and Sweden.