Welcome To A New America!!!!! (For the better even)

I would like to address some of the things that have been said about whether or not Obama is responsible for the recent downturn. I think there are several key points that have been missed in the discussion so far. This is going to be long so bear with me. I'm no expert, but I do follow the stock market minute by minute. I hope this will be informative.

First of all let's review the past 6 months of the market. Here's a chart I made of the DOW that you can reference (requires silverlight) http://www.bestfreecharts.com?emailChartID=ec851b36-b996-44f3-a946-c6114ef58160

The first big drop occurred back in October. This was back when Lehman Brothers and AIG went kaput. This is also the time period that the first government bailout bill failed. The low during this time was around 8,000. This low created a support line. When investors look at the history they see this as the most recent low. Usually when the markets approach this support line they'll bounce right off that. Conversely 9,000 is the resistance line. When the markets approach this point investors decide that everything is overvalued and it again bounces off this line. You can see that the markets have oscillated between these two lines fairly regularly ever since October. That was until February came alone. At this point the markets obliterated the 8,000 support line. Ever since then investors have been looking for a bottom.

Now it's been on this most recent down turn for a very very long time. Usually you would see a short term cyclical reversal. Yet, day after day it continues to go down. We are long overdue for a correction, and it's not coming. So the big question is why?

Which brings us to Obama. Now nobody is blaming Obama for sending the markets tumbling. However, I do blame him for the markets not reversing already. We are long overdue for a bottom, and all it would take is the right words from Obama to make it reverse. This would create a short term reversal and send the DOW back up to 8,000 or higher. I can think of at least 3 things he could do that would guarantee a short term reversal tomorrow. Fact of the matter is that there is a trillion things he could be doing right now. The market is nervous and has a lot of questions. Yet day after day the Obama administration fails to provide any kind of guidance.

Seeing as how dumbasses will believe anything you tell them, you may be right.

And then tomorrow if he comes on the TV box and says "Welp it's all going to be okay we have saved the economy!" do you really think anything will change? What could he even say? The government has no control over this mess. They just pissed an unimaginable amount of money over the precipice to "fix the problem" and I think that has in the short term caused even less certainty, and in the long term it will only prolong the pain.

a plan for dealing with the toxic mortgage assets would be a brilliant first step. but hey, I was able to use turbo-tax, so wtf do I know...

SlayerDragon said:

And then tomorrow if he comes on the TV box and says "Welp it's all going to be okay we have saved the economy!" do you really think anything will change? What could he even say? The government has no control over this mess. They just pissed an unimaginable amount of money over the precipice to "fix the problem" and I think that has in the short term caused even less certainty, and in the long term it will only prolong the pain.

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The funny thing is that getting on TV and saying "Welp it's all going to be okay" is exactly what he's been doing! What he should be doing is talking about actual policy. Just about the only things he's done is the stimulus bill and announcing bigger capital gains tax. The former we'll have to wait and see what it does, and the latter has only made things worse!

There are several policy decisions he could announce that would alleviate many of the market concerns. For instance there used to be a rule that you could only short sell a stock on an uptick. This rule no longer exists and has really hurt banks this past week. This is something that doesn't even require legislation to fix. All Obama has to do is put down his signature! It's so simple, and yet there is no indication that it's even crossed Obama's mind.

Sir_Brizz said:

What Bush did in the weeks following 9/11 is a perfect example. We were on the brink of an enormous economic collapse then, too, and he was able to quickly increase confidence and stabilize the markets.

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It's this kind of thinking that is your flaw in all of your arguments. When 9/11 happened we had an enemy. Who is the enemy now? Our banks? Our citizens? Our entire financial institution? Everyone has a different view of what can be done to fix things and no one can really agree. You say that people want any answers to which there is the stimulus and a whole lot of explanation on the part of the obama administration as to why that's going to help. Hell, Warren Buffett believes that Obama is mostly doing the right things (though he is certainly still critical of various policies and decisions). Yet the fear and infighting still happens.

So what now?

Right now the entire way our system works is our enemy and we don't know how to get past it. There are loads of ideas and people can't agree what will work. And since we can't agree on what's best instead of coming together, like we did with 9/11, we've divided and have been attacked everyone else's opinions. THAT certainly doesn't help boost confidence either.

I'm going to rest on the fact that we have to wait and see who looks foolish in 6-12 months, because a path has already been formed and there is no other way to find out what's going to happen. It wouldn't hurt if the current administration would stop with the spending on pet projects (which don't amount to a large amount of the spending--and I'm calling health care essential here even though I'm positive you would disagree) and it would certainly help if people stopped hoping that he would fail.

~Jason

dragonfliet said:

And since we can't agree on what's best instead of coming together, like we did with 9/11, we've divided and have been attacked everyone else's opinions. THAT certainly doesn't help boost confidence either.

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We came together with 911?
Shoot, about the only thing a lot of people agreed on was Bush's plan to create a scapegoat.

KILL KILL KILL!

dragonfliet said:

It's this kind of thinking that is your flaw in all of your arguments. When 9/11 happened we had an enemy. Who is the enemy now? Our banks? Our citizens? Our entire financial institution? Everyone has a different view of what can be done to fix things and no one can really agree. You say that people want any answers to which there is the stimulus and a whole lot of explanation on the part of the obama administration as to why that's going to help. Hell, Warren Buffett believes that Obama is mostly doing the right things (though he is certainly still critical of various policies and decisions). Yet the fear and infighting still happens.

So what now?

Right now the entire way our system works is our enemy and we don't know how to get past it. There are loads of ideas and people can't agree what will work. And since we can't agree on what's best instead of coming together, like we did with 9/11, we've divided and have been attacked everyone else's opinions. THAT certainly doesn't help boost confidence either.

I'm going to rest on the fact that we have to wait and see who looks foolish in 6-12 months, because a path has already been formed and there is no other way to find out what's going to happen. It wouldn't hurt if the current administration would stop with the spending on pet projects (which don't amount to a large amount of the spending--and I'm calling health care essential here even though I'm positive you would disagree) and it would certainly help if people stopped hoping that he would fail.

~Jason

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I would point out here that in terms of forming a short term reversal it doesn't really matter what Obama does. Anything, and I mean absolutely anything that anybody on the stock market could consider "good news" would do it. That doesn't mean that we would be better off a year from now, but it would get us out of this current cycle.

I think the larger issue here is that Obama has addressed the economy, but he hasn't addressed the stock market at all. There needs to be reforms. New rules. They need to rethink the regulations. So far Obama has said nothing of the sort. He doesn't make any of those policy changes that only the president can make, and the things he has said have only led investors to think that Obama is waging war on them.

Plumb_Drumb said:

We came together with 911?
Shoot, about the only thing a lot of people agreed on was Bush's plan to create a scapegoat.

KILL KILL KILL!

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What!?
scapegoat- a person or group made to bear the blame for others or to suffer in their place. Afghanistan... how so?

Iraq completely fair game to debate, even as bad as Bush wanted to link it to 911 he never actually did. So what are you talking about? Are you actually trying to say people operating in Afghanistan were not responsible? Please explain, I'm very confused. The number of false implicating statements, and crap not based in reality drives me bat**** crazy. lol

shutup

Ugh this thread is a cancer. You're all so basic at debating this trivial bullsh*t anyway. None of you are smart enough to realize that you know nothing. You're all tripping on this two-party system and it's tearing us all apart and making us hate each other. Way to go, puppets. No more talking - I'm locking this thread right now with my magical moderator powers....

annnnnnnd....

DONE!

[edit]

ROLL UUUUUUUP! ROLL UP FOR THE MYSTERY TOUR! ROLL UUUUUUUUUP! ROLL UP FOR THE MYSTERY TOUR!

he puts his penis in it.

Dude stfu I locked this thread, just go with it. Now no one's gonna believe me!

The constant lies and passing the buck is what really bugs the **** out of me. In this interview with NYT, he keeps the same ol' BS flowing...

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/08/us/politics/08obama-text.html?_r=3&pagewanted=all

Q. The first six weeks have given people a glimpse of your spending priorities. Are you a socialist as some people have suggested?

A. You know, let’s take a look at the budget – the answer would be no.

Q. Is there anything wrong with saying yes?

A. Let’s just take a look at what we’ve done. We’ve essentially said that, number one, we’re going to reduce non-defense discretionary spending to the lowest levels in decades. So that part of the budget that doesn’t include entitlements and doesn’t include defense – that we have the most control over – we’re actually setting on a downward trajectory in terms of percentage of G.D.P. So we’re making more tough choices in terms of eliminating programs and cutting back on spending than any administration has done in a very long time. We’re making some very tough choices.
...
So if you look at our budget, what you have is a very disciplined, fiscally responsible budget, along with an effort to deal with some very serious problems that have been put off for a very long time. And that I think is exactly what I proposed during the campaign.

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I swear it just pisses me off to hear him say that.

I did think it might be useful to point out that it wasn’t under me that we started buying a bunch of shares of banks. It wasn’t on my watch....
Q. So who’s watch are we talking about here?

A. Well, I just think it’s clear by the time we got here, there already had been an enormous infusion of taxpayer money into the financial system.

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oh right, didn't he vote yes on tarp? geez...



oh, and a really nice bonus for all of you Palin fans. PLEASE, lol....

Q: Sir, we’re landing here, but what are you reading these days? What kind of newspapers do you read, do you read the clips, do you read actual papers, do you watch television?

A: Other than The New York Times?

Q: Other than The New York Times. Do you read Web sites? What Web sites do you look at?

A: I read most of the big national papers.

Q. Do you read them in clips or do you read them in the paper?

A. No, I read the paper. I like the feel of a newspaper. I read most of the weekly newsmagazines. I may not read them from cover to cover but I’ll thumb through them. You know, I spend most of my time these days reading a lot of briefings.

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EDIT:

hal said:

Around here it's Unreal, buddy.

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oh yea, woops

Peavey said:

Dude stfu I locked this thread, just go with it. Now no one's gonna believe me!

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I'm gonna punch you in the Telecaster, you don't shutup.

I think if you're simply following the stock market to say whether it's been a good or bad day is fallacy. You need to turn the TV off and stop reading the news for a while.

I believe most of this stock tumble was a correction - a major correction - the ballooning up of the economy wasn't real for the last 5-6 years.

Correct me if I'm wrong, as I'm sure someone will, but the stock market doesn't reflect the actual economic health of this country.

And if the president merely speaks to cause a blip in the market, it's not likely to stay up nor will it necessarily continue to climb. Again, it's ludicrous to think that way.

hal said:

Almost all of the clips he was playing from all those different networks were commentary shows or from opinion portions of new shows. You know, the TV equivalent to the newspaper's editorial page. Fox & Friends is apparently a Today-show kind of thing.

The problem is that most of our "news networks" mix a lot of editorial stuff stuff into their news shows and editorial shows mix in a bit of news. It's really unclear at times which is which.

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I wasn't trying to imply that all the clips was an indication of Fox News bias, just the deep frying of the budget on Fox & Friends part. I don't recall anybody on the "Today Show" deep frying Bush war plans or anything remotely like that. I'm Okay with Fox being as bias as they are, I just hate that they are too cowardly to admit it.

I agree that many, if not most, networks mix news with opinion, but none more than Fox News. MSNBC may be another at the Fox level, but my cable company doesn't carry MSNBC, so I wouldn't know.

The other clips where DOOM! & GLOOM! is predicted, show how those Pundits/Spin Doctors from various networks that first accused Obama of "Fear Mongering" were now doing exactly what they accused Obama of doing.

I agree that Obama pushed the negative in order to get his "Stimulus Packaged" passed, but that's what all politicians do.

TWD said:

Which brings us to Obama. Now nobody is blaming Obama for sending the markets tumbling. However, I do blame him for the markets not reversing already. We are long overdue for a bottom, and all it would take is the right words from Obama to make it reverse. This would create a short term reversal and send the DOW back up to 8,000 or higher. I can think of at least 3 things he could do that would guarantee a short term reversal tomorrow. Fact of the matter is that there is a trillion things he could be doing right now. The market is nervous and has a lot of questions. Yet day after day the Obama administration fails to provide any kind of guidance.

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http://www.whitehouse.gov/

here you go...