Facebook IPO

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Sir_Brizz

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Feb 3, 2000
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and you've summed it up nicely.
personally I thought that 100 Billion was WAY overblown, even if my interpretation was more accurate.
Oh, fair enough. I suppose I was a little eager when writing that post. Hopefully it does make sense.
You also can't just say "it's not worth 100 billion". What are you basing that off of? Right now the stock is trading at around 70 times earnings per share. That sounds high, but you also have to remember that their growth estimates are at 35%. That gives you a price earnings growth ratio of around 2 which is reasonable for a stock with this much attention. A good argument for "it's not worth that much" would be something along the lines of "they aren't going to generate revenue of $0.13 per share" or "they aren't going to grow 35% over the next few years.
The problem is, Facebook's P/E is well under half of what they IPO at. The value of the company isn't even worth half of what it is trading at right now. It doesn't matter if they grow 35% in the next 18 months, their valuation will STILL be too high. It's a stock that was destined to crash and burn.

Their current market cap is $66bn. That means they already lost $34bn since Friday. That is insane. That is not an IPO worth putting money into. If you really want some money in Facebook, wait 6 months and the stock should bottom out in single digits.

Aside from all this, the numbers for Facebook have been looking somewhat glum with a lot of analysts saying they've peaked in earnings potential. I wouldn't at all be surprised if that were true.

Edit: On a side note, things are just as bad for their partners. On opening day, Zynga dropped 15% and has dropped another 6% since then.
 

Sir_Brizz

Administrator
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Feb 3, 2000
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Somebody is propping Facebook today. However, the markets in general are dive bombing today.