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QUALTHWAR
12th Nov 2001, 07:23 PM
Iíve heard statistics many times about how much safer it is to fly than to drive. I didnít realize, until recently, that this is based on miles traveled. So someone who travels a total of 200,000 miles, either by jet or vehicle, would be safer in flight. But this is because of the great distances traveled in a plane compared to the average journey in a car.

Hereís the kicker: You are 10 times more likely to die in a plane crash compared to a car accident if you go by the number of trips taken. So if you make 1000 trips in your car and 1000 trips in a plane, youíre 10 times more likely to die in a plane than in your car.

Waffnuffly
12th Nov 2001, 08:52 PM
....so which is it really?

I have no plane fears, even with the terrorism threats. I admit it makes me nervous, but I've flown on planes all my life and always will when going to other states. And I fly Delta BTW:)

QUALTHWAR
12th Nov 2001, 09:46 PM
Statistically, youíre safer in a car. Youíre 10 times more likely to die in a plane, but the airlines donít want you to know this. They tell you youíre safer in a plane, statistically, but they base this on miles. Put it this way, each time you sit in the seat of a plane, youíre 10 times more likely to die than if youíd sat in the seat of a car.

JTRipper
12th Nov 2001, 10:44 PM
I've sat in a car seat thousands of times and a plane seat a half dozen. I suppose I should quit pressing my luck with the cars and fly more.

Sven_ya!
13th Nov 2001, 10:16 AM
Yeah, it's easy to take several thousand trips by car in a lifetime, even in just a couple years. Most people might not even take more than 20 plane rides in their lives. The ones who come anywhere close to 1000 plane rides are business travelers and the like.

It's not like you take the plane to the store very often. So, over an equal number of trips by plane and by car you're 10 times more likely to die by plane. However, most of us are 100s of times more likely to have made the trip by car in the first place. Therefore, by that statistic, air travel *is* safer.

Frostblood
13th Nov 2001, 01:59 PM
The average person is far more likely to die in a car crash than in a plane crash. Even someone who flys every weekend would probably not be much more likely to die by plane. Also, the average pedestrian is far more likely to die from a car hitting them than a plane.

Cat Fuzz
13th Nov 2001, 05:31 PM
I think they are counting number of deaths per year. Car crashes account for many more fatalities than plane crashes. Well, maybe not this year, but I remember one year when we had zero plane crashes.

QUALTHWAR
13th Nov 2001, 08:35 PM
Originally posted by Frostblood
The average person is far more likely to die in a car crash than in a plane crash. Even someone who flys every weekend would probably not be much more likely to die by plane. Also, the average pedestrian is far more likely to die from a car hitting them than a plane.

Only because they take far more trips in a car. But if you took 10,000 trips in a plane, and 10,000 trips in a car, youíre 10 times more likely to die in a plane.

Sven_ya!
14th Nov 2001, 09:56 AM
Originally posted by QUALTHWAR


Only because they take far more trips in a car. But if you took 10,000 trips in a plane, and 10,000 trips in a car, youíre 10 times more likely to die in a plane.

That's a meaningless statistic, though, as I don't think anybody's going to be taking 10,000 trips by plane, but many will take 10,000 trips by car in thier lifetimes...

QUALTHWAR
14th Nov 2001, 10:44 PM
The point of the thread was to show how airlines choose to post a statistic that puts them in a good light. The fact is, and this is a valid statistic, you are 10 times more likely to die when you sit in the seat of a plane than when you sit in the seat of a car. So they look for ways to avoid that publicity. I fully understand your point, and I fully agree with it. Itís just that the public is only made aware of what the airlines want us to be aware of.

Sven_ya!
15th Nov 2001, 01:23 PM
Originally posted by QUALTHWAR
The point of the thread was to show how airlines choose to post a statistic that puts them in a good light.

Well, not to sound juvenile, but DUUUUH! ;)

Still, saying that is like saying that the diet cola companies aren't being very forthcoming with the fact that if you injest 100 cans of their product a day you'll eventually develop cancer. There can be a fine line between withholding important safety information and simply neglecting to mention potential but highly unlikely hazards. But, I frankly don't think the airlines are anywhere close to that line simply because they haven't stated, as you have, that each time you sit down in an airplane seat you're 10 times more likely to die than each time you sit in a car seat.

For all practical purposes, air travel is safer. Flat out, most people are more likely to die in a car accident than an airplane accident. The fact that on an even number of trips you're more likely to die by plane is more a triviality than a useable statistic.

QUALTHWAR
15th Nov 2001, 01:37 PM
Originally posted by Sven_ya!




Still, saying that is like saying that the diet cola companies aren't being very forthcoming with the fact that if you injest 100 cans of their product a day you'll eventually develop cancer.

Really!? Ah oh.

Sven_ya!
15th Nov 2001, 02:17 PM
Originally posted by QUALTHWAR


Really!? Ah oh.

:D

JTRipper
15th Nov 2001, 02:23 PM
Come to think of it, what if the plane hits turnulence during the in-flight meal? You could jab yourself in the eye with your fork if it's bad enough! Where are the warnings that flying can cause blindness??

On the other hand.... most accidents happen withing a mile of the home. It's pretty unlikely that your flight will crash withing a mile of your house, so I guess flying must be pretty safe.

Balton
15th Nov 2001, 02:31 PM
the dumbest thing that can happen to you when you have.... when you really have to **** and you are sitting while they are landing and you cant stop....

GoldenMouse
15th Nov 2001, 08:03 PM
You can make statistics say virtually anything you want them too. Just base it upon something deviously thrown in, an odd detail that changes the whole thing without turning it into a lie. I could possibly (with far more work than I am willing to do) declare that Xan whoops Nikita's ass an average of 27.673 times a year, and she his about 27.742 times? :con:

QUALTHWAR
15th Nov 2001, 10:28 PM
Originally posted by GoldenMouse
You can make statistics say virtually anything you want them too. Just base it upon something deviously thrown in, an odd detail that changes the whole thing without turning it into a lie. I could possibly (with far more work than I am willing to do) declare that Xan whoops Nikita's ass an average of 27.673 times a year, and she his about 27.742 times? :con:

I have no freakiní idea what youíre talking about.

Ulukai
16th Nov 2001, 06:48 AM
I'm of the opinion that most non-raw statistics are bunk, and should be taken with a pinch of salt.

Once you've finished applying carefully selected statistical distributions and screwing around with them you can prove just about anything.

Varpu
16th Nov 2001, 07:56 AM
What about riding a BUS ?

Sven_ya!
16th Nov 2001, 09:53 AM
Originally posted by Varpu
What about riding a BUS ?

Get on to the bus
That's gonna take
You back to beeazebub!

Sven_ya!
16th Nov 2001, 09:54 AM
Originally posted by JTRipper
On the other hand.... most accidents happen withing a mile of the home. It's pretty unlikely that your flight will crash withing a mile of your house, so I guess flying must be pretty safe.

"I read somewhere that most accidends happen within a mile of your house. So I moved."

-Stephen Wright

GoldenMouse
16th Nov 2001, 02:19 PM
Originally posted by QUALTHWAR


I have no freakiní idea what youíre talking about.

What I'm saying is that you can make statistics sound like anything you want them to. Just leave out an important detail, like with the death statistics on cars and planes. Based on miles, plane is safer. Based on trips, car is safer. They didn't say WHAT it was based on, just that plane was safer.

Frostblood
16th Nov 2001, 04:27 PM
Kent Brockman : "Homer, how do you respond to allegations that while vandelism is down 60%, brutal sack beatings are up a massive 900%??"
Homer : "Oh Kent, people can make up statistics to prove anything. 47% of people know that"

Balton
16th Nov 2001, 07:53 PM
well, the thing is that if you cash with a plane you will be defianitly dead. in a car you can have luck...