UK election ... who's gonna win?

[iolair]

3 Results so far ....

Houghton & Washington East (Labour Hold)
Labour down 8.9 percent, LibDems up 5.5% :), BNP up 3.9% :(

Sunderland North (Labour Hold)
Labour down 8.3 percent, LibDems up 2.7%, Cons up 1.9%

Sunderland South (Labour Hold)
Labour down 5.3 percent, LibDems up 2.8%, Cons up 2%


If those swings averaged (Lab -7.5%, LibDems +3.7%, Cons +1.5%) worked across the country, the new parliament would look like this:

Vote share
Labour: 33.5%
Conservatives: 33.5%
LibDems: 21.7%
Others: 9.4%

Seats
Labour: 343
Conservatives: 214
LibDems: 59
Others: 30

which still leaves labour with an overall majority of 40... yes, labour and conservatives would have equal vote, but labour still in a strong position but at least now vulnerable to backbench results within the party...

Don't you love the British electoral system ... I'd love to see some system of PR, but I can't see that happening as the current system clearly works far too well in the current government's favour.

[mokeh]

i am watching this on bbc1 and john snow is awesome, the way he gets so excited about his lovely little map with the little men on is heart warming 8)

[Selerox]

i am watching this on bbc1 and john snow is awesome, the way he gets so excited about his lovely little map with the little men on is heart warming 8)

The man lives for elections. I swear one of these days he'll explode from the excitment of it all. As for the result, sadly, Labour'll win it, but I don't think their majority will be anywhere close to what it was. The BBC exit-poll or more than 19,000 people estimates the Labour majority will drop by around 100 seats down to 66. I'm obviously hoping that Labour lose more than that, and that the Lib Dems make the gains.

One thing I can garuntee is that if Labour win with a massivly cut majority (which is likly), they'll still go on about how much of a landslide it was. One thing I will say is that Michael Howard is only defending a 5% majority, so anyone want odds on the slimey git losing his seat? :)

[Sam_The_Man]

John Snow owns. When he dies/retires they might as well just cancel democracy, there won't be any fun in it anymore.

No-one seriously expects the Tories to win, but we can hope for a hung parliament, which is pretty much the best possible outcome.

Although I voted Lib Dem, the thought of them actually becoming the Official Opposition is rather disturbing. Their 'more schools, less war, f**k business' brand of socialism is probably better than Labour's 'obey the unions, screw the toffs, f**k business' brand, but it would still be an extremely nasty situation to have two left-wing parties (ignoring 'New' Labour as it's doubtful it will survive Blair's resignation) as the main force in Britain.

[mokeh]

oh god there is a race to get to the door at downing street with 3d models and stuff, the bbc have pulled out all the stops :O

[Euphoric Beaver]

Laffo that downing street walk was classic! I have my fingers crossed for more shenanigans. :tup:

[Sam_The_Man]

oh god there is a race to get to the door at downing street with 3d models and stuff, the bbc have pulled out all the stops :O

I had to get up in the morning so I only saw the battle map and the swingometer. I liked the model on Dead Ringers though, with Howard setting up a steadily growing gypsy camp at No. 10 :D

[stoned_jedi]

wow the lib dems won my constituancy by 1% (taunton) hahaha i know the local tory mp (through work) and he is a toss pot hhahahahahahaha


when the revoloution comes they will be the first ones against the wall

[Crowze]

The Lib Dem candidate for my area died. :(

[Sam_The_Man]

when the revoloution comes they will be the first ones against the wall

The revolution came in 1917. You were proved wrong. :)

[edhe]

Crap result.

At least Scotland's PR. :)